İş Yatırım, Tüpraş #TUPRS için hedef fiyatını 230 TL’den 220 TL’ye düşürdü, tavsiyesini “al” olarak korudu
İş Yatırım’ın yayınladığı Tüpraş #TUPRS raporunun orijinali şöyle:
Tüpraş #TUPRS
Tupras Review of 4Q24 Financials
4Q24 results below estimates. Falling short of the expectations (Is Inv: TL5.15bn; Consensus: TL4.92bn), Tupras reported TL3.89bn net earnings in 4Q24, down by 93% YoY, on the back of lower crack margins and higher tax expenses despite lower energy expenses and strong net financial gains. The deviation in our estimate was mainly attributable to higher than expected tax expenses. Broadly in-line with our estimate of TL179bn but lower than market call of TL192bn, the Company generated TL173bn revenues in 4Q24, down by 35% YoY, driven by lower sales volumes on high base. Gross margin decreased by 7.9ppt YoY to 6.5% in 4Q24 and op-ex/sales ratio fell by 0.3ppt YoY to 3.0% in 4Q24. Consequently, In-line with our house call but below the market call (Is Inv: TL8.84bn; Consensus: TL9.93bn), EBITDA came in at 8.85bn in 4Q24, down by 72% YoY mainly due to lower crack margins and lower production volume. Company’s net cash position decreased to TL54.5bn as of 4Q24-end from TL61.3bn as of 3Q24-end.
Normalizing cracks, still above pre-pandemic levels. Middle distillate cracks were lower YoY due to the high base and higher QoQ due to improved demand and lower capacity utilizations. HSFO cracks remained strong due to supply constraints. Crack margins have been normalizing although they remain higher compared to pre-covid period, due to ongoing imbalances in supply and demand dynamics. Heavy crude price differentials to Brent widened in 4Q24 due to increased non-OPEC+ production. Tupras produced 6.8mn tons in 4Q24 with a CUR of 93%. Annual CUR reached 93%, highest level since 2019 despite the RUP maintenance in 1H24. The company generated 7.5mn tons of sales in 4Q24. Annual sales volume reached to 30.4mn tons, highest level since 2017.
Guidance. The company management set net refinery margin expectation for 2025 in the range of US$ 5-6/bbl (2024A: US$ 6.3/bbl). Average capacity utilization rate for 2025 is predicted to be around 90% -95% (2024A: 93%). Tupras expects to reach 26mn tons of annual production (2024A: 26.7mn) and 30mn tons annual sales (2024A: 30.4mn) in 2025. The company disclosed its 2025 full year capex expectation at US$600mn (2024A: US$376mn).
Valuation. We are lowering our PT for TUPRS to TL220/share from previous TL230/share driven by i) upward revision in our CAPEX forecasts, ii) changes in our macro assumptions and iii) roll-forward of our DCF. We maintain our BUY recommendation for TUPRS as it offers 65% upside potential. TUPRS trades at 2025E 4.4x EV/EBITDA, implying 22% discount compared to its international peers.
Comment. The company announced to distribute net TL12.9/share in two installments indicating 9.7% yield. We expect a neutral market reaction to Tupras’s below-expected results, taking into account the strong dividend
payment announcement and the fact that the stock underperformed the BIST-100 by 4% in the last week.
